Updated Projections - 54 of 162

How's it hangin' 1/3 of the way through the season?

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 33.3%

Preseason Projections: 66.7%

Season Projections

Let me be the first to say, I doubt Jose Abreu’s numbers below. That said, they continue to plummet as this season gains more and more of a percentage of the projections. My projection figured he would regress, but no one saw this coming.

Bielak and France did their job - give the team a chance to win - and with a little better bullpen on Monday they would have won both.

Astros 162

Click on the image for Episode 54.

Bullpen Usage

A win and three high leverage relievers getting an off day is a win-win.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Not much history here, but advantage to Astros.

K Prop

Market is at 6.5 and my number is 6.92. I’m going over.

Odds

Astros -178 doesn’t offer a lot of return, but Astros -1.5 +115 is the way I would go. Why? The Astros have played only 9 one-run games, the fewest in MLB. If they lose it doesn’t matter anyway and if they win there’s a high likelihood it’s by more than one.

Projected Standings

The one-third of the season mark is a good time to put in writing the differences in projections and track them moving forward.

Astros win totals:

Me: 98 Pythagorean: 96 Fangraphs: 92

May not mean anything note of the day

Yordan Alvarez is slashing .500/.546/1.000 with an OPS of 1.546 with two outs and runners in scoring position (22 plate appearances).

Thanks for reading!