Updated Projections - 79 of 162

Time is ticking

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 48.8%

Preseason Projections: 51.2%

Season Projections

Yordan Alvarez last played on June 8.

Astros wRC+ through June 8: 99

Astros wRC+ since June 9: 101

The relief pitching has significantly declined in the same period.

ERA through June 8: Starters 3.26 Bullpen 4.57

ERA since June 9: Starters 3.28 Bullpen 5.27

I know what you’re likely to say - the bullpen issues have been Montero, and you’re not wrong. Montero has a 15.88 ERA since June 9, but Montero accounts for less than 10% of bullpen innings since June 9. Others include - Bryan Abreu 7.94, Seth Martinez 5.63 and of course, Shawn Dubin at 15.00 in one appearance.

Since June 9 the Astros bullpen has 4 saves and 5 blown saves, 12 shutdowns and 15 meltdowns. They are melting down more than they are shutting down.

Again - Montero is a significant part of the issue, but since June 9 Phil Maton has 4 meltdown appearances and Ryan Pressly has 3.

Montero is not the only issue.

Astros 162

Click on the image for Episode 79.

or listen directly below:

Bullpen Usage

Only two arms used yesterday, which means everyone except for Stanek and Maton have had at least two days off.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Not much oppo experience for either.

K Prop

The number for Javier is 5.5. Limited history, no bet for me, and with the decline in Javier’s fastball I’m staying away.

Odds

Astros +102 and +168 -1.5. Too volatile for me to make a bet on this team.

Projected Standings

The virtual tie with the Angels has been broken.

May not mean anything notes of the day

Cristian Javier’s four-seam fastball by year:

2020 92.2 MPH .208/.314/.442

2021 93.5 MPH .226/.345/.421

2022 93.8 MPH .183/.277/.326

2023 92.6 MPH .244/.312/.416

Thanks for reading!