Updated Projections - 8 of 162

Offense not getting it done.

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 4.9% Preseason Projections: 95.1%

Season Projections

Eight games in is about a 5% sample size, but the Astros offense has looked putrid on balance.

Urquidy only went 5.1, but he also only gave up 1 run and that scored on an Abreu wild pitch with two outs.

K Prop

My numbers come in at 4.73 for Garcia and the market is at 5.5. I would tend to go under, because Luis rarely goes deep in games.

Odds

Astros are even money (+100) and I’ll take that bet almost any time, including today. The pitching matchup favors the Astros and that’s why they’re even money on the road.

Bullpen Usage

After a day off, 5 relievers were used yesterday and there’s not another scheduled day off until Thursday.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Right-hander Joe Ryan has limited experience vs. current Astros.

Luis Garcia has 59 PAs of experience vs. current Twins and has really good results.

Projected Standings

Still wonky.

May not mean anything note of the day

Mauricio Dubon had a good day at the plate yesterday, but has the highest O-Swing % on the team at 42.5%, followed by Jose Abreu at 38.5% and Jeremy Pena at 38.2%.

The numbers above do not include Yainer Diaz who has 9 plate appearances and a 54.3% O-Swing Rate.

Astros 162

Click on the image for Episode 8.

Thanks for reading!