Updated Projections - 82 of 162
Deep in the heart of Texas
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 50.6%
Preseason Projections: 49.4%
EDITOR’S NOTE:
I’ll be traveling to Arlington Sunday and Houston Monday for the games. Updates may be delayed. But I will have new pictures.
Season Projections
Timely hitting by Dubon, but also Abreu to start the rally in the 6th and Diaz to keep it going.
Nice outing by the bullpen. You can’t ask much more than Blanco gave you for what he is, his experience level, opponent and location.
Astros 162
Click on the image for Episode 82.
or listen directly below:
Bullpen Usage
The four leverage arms were all used, but 3 had only 13 pitches and the other 17. My guess is they are all available to some extent today, but that could have consequences for the final two games of the series.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
At first, it looks like advantage Astros, but the expected numbers flip the script quite a bit.
Let’s hope Altuve gets to play.
I’m guessing we don’t see Chas today.
K Prop
The number for Brown is 6.5. My number is 5.38. Take the under.
Odds
Astros +114 and -182 +1.5. Tough call looking at the starting pitchers’ numbers and expected numbers against opponents. It would be a flyer, but I’d consider Astros +114. The -182 doesn’t offer enough return for the risk.
Projected Standings
A couple more wins this weekend would be nice.
May not mean anything notes of the day
Jose Abreu in June: 292/.311/.510, 6 doubles, 5 HR, 21 RBI.
Mauricio Dubon is slashing .393/.452/.536 in 31 plate appearances in late/close situations. Last night’s double wouldn’t qualify, but he’s been clutch.
Alex Bregman is slashing .347/.485/.587 in 97 plate appearances with RISP.
Ronel Blanco’s xERA is 5.48 vs. his ERA of 4.72.
Hunter Brown’s 4-Seam Fastball is down 0.6 MPH from last season, but his numbers on the pitch are not close to 2022:
2022: 96.6 MPH .167/.246/.233
2023: 96.0 MPH .242/.352/.414
Brown threw the 4-seamer 52.4% of the time in his brief debut last fall, but is only throwing it 41.7% of time this season. Meanwhile, his use of the slider has more than doubled (13.3% to 27.4%).
Thanks for reading!