Updated Projections - 83 of 162

Even Steven

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 51.2%

Preseason Projections: 48.8%

EDITOR’S NOTE:

I’ll be traveling to Arlington Sunday for Monday’s game and Houston for Tuesday’s game. Updates may be delayed. But I will have new pictures.

Season Projections

Not much happened at the plate yesterday, but Tucker is now projected at 33 doubles, 26 home runs and 99 RBI.

Dubin’s projected numbers will jump, assuming he goes more than an inning or two.

Astros 162

Click on the image for Episode 83.

or listen directly below:

Bullpen Usage

No high leverage arms used yesterday, but one wonders with the long guy starting, who becomes the long guy with Martinez throwing 40 pitches yesterday.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Obviously no experience for Dubin at the ML level against Rangers, but Mr. Heaney has seen the Astros plenty.

K Prop

No K prop listed for Astros yet, but I wouldn’t bet it any way with Dubin’s scant MLB history and 0 experience against the Rangers.

Odds

Astros +110 and -184 +1.5. Don’t like either of these and would take the Rangers (-1.5 +152) if I was non-partisan, but I’ll sit it out, thank you.

Projected Standings

The next two games could go a long way to determining whether the Astros are contenders or shooting for a Wild Card spot.

May not mean anything notes of the day

• Yesterday we wrote about Hunter Brown’s four-seam fastball and it was down (on average) to 95.8 MPH against the Rangers.

• Brown did top out at 97.7 MPH on the four-seamer, so he can reach back, but on average it’s not the same and he sure isn’t getting the same results.

• Brown also threw the 4-seamer more often than he has (63% vs. 42%) coming in.

• Shawn Dubin has only thrown 104 MLB pitches, but here’s the breakdown:

  4-seam Fastball: 38.5%

  Curve: 20.2%

  Changeup: 19.2%

  Cutter: 14.4%

  Sweeper: 7.7%

• None have been particularly effective, but the cutter has the best expected numbers.

• Here are the Astros numbers since Yordan last played (6/8):

  Record: 9-11

  Slash: .247/.318/.406 wRC+ 101

  ERA: 4.57 Starters: 4.67 Relievers: 4.39

• Stolen base projections after 83 games:

  

  After 83 games the Astros are 60 of 76 on stolen bases, meaning they are still attempting less than one steal per game.

  In 2022 the Astros stole 83 bases on 105 attempts.

  My guess is the projected numbers above increase in the coming weeks as the actual numbers account for more and more of the projections.

  Thanks for reading!