Updated Projections - 99 of 162 Games
Successful in Seattle
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Astros Expected Wins | MLB Projected Standings | MLB Power Rankings | MLB Luck Rankings | Journal
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 61.1% Preseason Projections: 38.9%
The Astros are 52-47, in 1st place in the American League West, percentage points ahead of the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 86-76 finish, 1st place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 53.5% chance of winning the Division and a 63.4% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Despite an RBI single Sunday Chas continues to struggle offensively and seems to have been passed by Cabbage, which is interesting because Cabbage has been worse (at least by stats) at the plate than Chas has over the last 30 days (see below).
Low stress for Blanco on Sunday
Generally low stress for bullpen in Seattle series.
Stress Index
I like this index in combination with innings pitched, because not every inning is the same.
That said, it’s far from perfect, but it gives you a general idea of who is having stressful starts, especially when you see guys over 105 or so (still developing the heat map aspect).
The Home Run Project
Huge home run with a 2.91 LI from Jake Meyers in game 2 in Seattle.
OVER | UNDER
Under: 57 Over: 39 Push: 3
Under: 57.6% Over: 39.4% Push: 3.0%
Streak: 1 OVER
If you want information on Umpires Scorecards please visit umpscorecards.com.
Projected Standings | Expected Wins | Luck
Through games of 7.21.34
Luck Rankings
Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.
Astros are 25th in the Luck Rankings, implying there is still some upside in their W/L record ahead.
The Astros are 7-17 in one-run games.
The number below is the percentage of a team’s winning percentage that can be attributed to “luck”, either positive (green) or negative (red).
Example: At one point the Astros win % was .439 and my numbers say they “should” have been at .493, a difference of .054.
.054/.439 = 12.3% (rounded), which was the Astros luck rating, which was negative in this example.
In general, you expect the teams at bottom to regress positively (towards 0.00) and teams at top to regress negatively (to 0.00).
Other Stats/Information
Tracking Expected Wins by Date
As early as July 3, CSJ projected the Astros to overtake the Mariners.
Quality Starts
Across the league teams win close to 70% of games where their team’s starter throws a quality start.
It is closer to 80% if your pitcher has a quality start and the other team’s pitcher does not throw a quality start.
Simply put, it’s indicative of “giving your team a chance”.
Rolling 30-Day Batting
Rolling 30-Day Arms
MLB Power Rankings
On a scale where 100.00 = 81 wins. In other words, a power number of 110.00 means you would be expected to win 110% of the “average team” (81 wins) which equals 89 games.
These rankings consider runs scored, runs given up AND wins and losses.
50.00 = 40.50 wins
75.00 = 60.75 wins
100.00 = 81.00 wins
125.00 = 101.25 wins
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