Updated Projections - Game 1 of 162

and so it begins

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 0.6%

Preseason Projections: 99.4%

It has started early this year, with a family medical issue that needed to be taken care of this morning, so there is a shortened version of the projections today, with much more to come in the next few days and weeks.

Appreciate your indulgence.

Season Projections

Not much to see here after a single game.

The different managerial philosophy of Espada was stark and apparent from game 1 and I like it.

Negative short-term results should not be mistaken for a flawed process.

Stress Index

Bear with me on this as it’s a work in progress.

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

While Framber threw 86 pitches and that sounds reasonable for opening day, the aLI was 1.49, indicating more stress than your “typical” 86 pitches.

Pressly’s aLI was 2.47 and Seth Martinez 3.94. I would guess both are down today.

This presentation could change as I work to figure out what “works”.

The Game Turned When

Aaron Judge’s double off Ryan Pressly leading off the top of the 7th took the Yankees win probability from 50% to 61%.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Coming in the next few days as data gaps are filled.

Stat of the Day

Kyle Tucker’s 9th inning single had a LI of 7.15, the highest of the game.

Thanks for reading!