Updated Projections - Game 100 of 162

Triple digit reality

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 61.7

Preseason Projections: 38.3%

Season Projections

Mushinski is back.

Astros 162

Click on the image for episode 100.

Bullpen Usage

As mentioned, Mushinski replaces Kuhnel, at least for the time being.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

NOTE: I’ve sorted these by wOBA against to make it easier to determine who to watch for (or bet on, if you are so inclined).

Not much experience for Bielak vs. Texas.

Gray has good numbers against the Astros, but has walked a few.

K Prop

No bet for Bielak, but the for those so inclined the number is 4.5.

Odds

Houston -104 on the MoneyLine and -178 +1.5. No bet for me as the Rangers lineup is too powerful in this situation.

Projected Standings & Luck Rankings

The Rangers are back to 100 wins, the most in AL.

Current Playoff Projections:

AL Division Winners: Rangers, Rays, Twins

AL Wild Cards: Orioles, Blue Jays (88.4), Astros (87.9)

• My numbers still favor the Rays over the Orioles in the East.

NL Division Winners: Braves, Dodgers, Brewers

• Brewers .3 edge over Reds and Reds have .3 edge over Phillies for the final Wild Card

NL Wild Cards: Giants, Diamondbacks, Reds

Luck Rankings

The Marlins win another one-run game and are now 22-9 in those games.

May not mean anything notes of the day

Since Yordan last played, the Astros are 20-17, with these stats:

• ERA 4.49 Starters ERA 4.65 Relievers 4.23 15 Saves 9 Blown Saves

• Batting: .252/.322/.431 with .326 wOBA 108 wRC+

Some Rando numbers:

• Mauricio Dubon’s home run in the 9th inning Sunday was his first extra-base hit since July 4th (63 plate appearances).

• Dubon’s ISO Power (% of ABs that result in extra-base hits) of .113 is 131st of 147 qualified players (bottom 11%).

• Dubon played fantastic defense Sunday and, in general, has played very well at second base and is in the 78th percentile in Outs Above Average.

Thanks for reading!