Updated Projections - Game 104 of 162

Rays take game 1

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 64.2%

Preseason Projections: 35.8%

Season Projections

The addition of Altuve and Alvarez to the starting lineup has improved the bench. It didn’t work out last night, but bringing Diaz and Dubon off the bench is better than bringing Hensley and Madris off the bench.

One wonders when a move will be made in left.

Uneven performance by Javier, who now has 9 decisions in 20 starts on the season.

Astros 162

Click on the image for episode 104.

Bullpen Usage

The majority of high-leverage relievers used for 19-22 pitches in a loss.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Good numbers for Brown vs. Rays, but these numbers were from last year.

No Astro with more than 3 plate appearances vs. Bradley.

K Prop

Hunter Brown comes in at 6.5 Ks against the Rays. With my number coming in at 7.34 and I would lean over. I say lean because as I mentioned yesterday, part of handicapping is also being aware of the situation and not being a blind slave to the old spreadsheet and Brown has struggled recently.

Odds

The Astros are -136 on the ML and +146 -1.5. I don’t like either of these given the pitching matchup and Astros likely bullpen availability.

Projected Standings

Very tight race in NL Central. More on projected standings here.

Luck Rankings

Marlins and Reds with their 23rd one-run wins of the season, Phillies with 22nd.

May not mean anything notes of the day

J.P. France ERA -

• Home: 3.96

• Away: 2.05

• Before All-Star break: 3.26

• After All-Star break: 1.47

• May: 4.00

• June: 2.43

• July: 2.22

Thanks for reading!