Updated Projections - Game 105 of 162
The closer you get
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 64.8%
Preseason Projections: 35.2%
Season Projections
Jose Abreu continues to improve upon his disappointing season. In the worst season of his MLB career, my projections still have him finishing with 18 HR and 91 RBI. I’m dubious of those totals and would ballpark 14 HR and 85 RBI, but we shall see.
One of the reasons I began the projections was to “protect” myself from being a “prisoner of the moment” in a 162-game slog of a season comprised of many ups and downs.
If, in fact, Abreu finishes at .262/.322/.402 with 18 HR and 91 RBI, I think it has to be labeled a success, though some will never see it that way.
Six really good innings by Brown and a couple of bad batters to start the 7th.
Big test for Bielak today.
Astros 162
Click on the image for episode 105.
Bullpen Usage
A win with a day off for high-leverage arms is a good thing with no off day until August 7.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
No experience for Bielak against the Rays.
Very limited experience for the Rays opener against Astros.
K Prop
O/U 4.5 for Bielak is a stayaway for me. For the brave souls, Bielak is striking out 18.2% of batters faced and averaging 23.75 batters per start.
Odds
Astros -108 on the MoneyLine would be a yes for me and -178 -1.5 is worth a strong look.
Projected Standings
The Astros once again have pulled within a game of first and the Rangers have scored just 1 run in two games combined in San Diego.
Technically, the Mariners lead the Angels for 3rd in the AL West.
I’ll remind my readers that there are 57ish games to go for most teams, more than a third of the season.
Cubs take over, if you can call it that, the NL Central.
Luck Rankings
Astros continue to be on the wrong side of the luck meter, but the good news is that could pay dividends over the last 57 games.
May not mean anything notes of the day
Brandon Bielak -
ERA: 3.62 xERA: 5.46
ERA by month - May: 3.19 June: 6.61 July: 2.01
ERA by location: Home: 3.25 Away: 4.01
HardHit%: 48.4% [Bottom 4% of the league]
Best pitch: Changeup - 25.4% usage 87.1 MPH
Oppo slash on Changeup: .215/.274/.354
Only pitch with positive run value
Whiff%: 33.9
Thanks for reading!
Yuli fanatics are out in full force. Abreu has a track record of producing, but certainly hasn’t done so this year...and his play in the field recently is lacking, too.
I loved Yuli, but there’s no denying, at least to the rational, his skills eroded markedly last season.
If Abreu finishes with your projections, I agree....a success, but with the "given the way he started" caveat! I don't know his recent numbers well enough to make it a blanket statement of a successful season.
Marty.....you might enjoy this somewhat snide article I wrote in July 2018, when the Astros were threatening (See? There I go again!) to trade for Abreu before that season's deadline. Man, did I hear it from White Sox county (what.......they're a nation?)😁Sports is fun!
https://therunnersports.com/astros-showing-interest-in-white-sox-first-baseman-jose-abreu/