Updated Projections - Game 109 of 162

Chas and the pen

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 67.3%

Preseason Projections: 32.7%

Season Projections

Chas now projects to 20 HR. It’s almost like he should play every day.

Astros 162

Click on the image for episode 109.

Bullpen Usage

Wednesday reiterated the importance of the occasional game like Tuesday. Not the no-hitter and/or complete game necessarily, but the resting of the bullpen that allowed everyone necessary to be used Wednesday in a one-run game.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Numbers favor the Astros and Javier, though Schmidt has limited experience against the Astros.

K Prop

My number is 5.48 with the number coming in at 5.5. That, and Javier’s inconsistency, leads to no bet for me.

Odds

Houston -108 on the MoneyLine and +146 at -1.5. I’ll take the ML, but the offense is too inconsistent to take -1.5.

Projected Standings

Ch-ch-ch changes.

AL Division Winners: Rangers, Rays, Twins

AL Wild Card Teams: Orioles, Blue Jays, Astros

Why? The Rangers score a lot of runs. Can they be shut down? Of course, but the odds are against it, at least in the regular season.

In real life the Orioles lead the Rays by 1.5 games, but my numbers currently project the Rays to win by 2 games. Importantly, that was 3 games, so nothing’s final with 50+ games to go.

NL Division Winners: Braves, Dodgers, Cubs

NL Wild Card Teams: Giants, Phillies, Padres

The NL Central is up in the air, with three teams in play, but the other two divisions seem to be settled.

The Wild Card races could be fascinating, though as the Phillies, Marlins, Reds, Brewers, Padres and Diamondbacks are all vying for the final spot currently.

The recent Padres surge, including the sweep of the Rangers, places them .08 games ahead of the Reds as of today.

Luck Rankings

We continue to believe that the Rays and Cubs are the teams to keep an eye on in their respective divisions.

May not mean anything notes of the day

Since July 1:

Chas: .349/.444/.735 .485 wOBA 219 wRC+ 8 HR 26 RBI 4/4 SB 99 PA

Since July 19:

Corey Julks: .000/.122/.000 .086 wOBA -59 wRC+ 0 HR 2 RBI 0/0 SB 41 PA

Selected ERAs since July 1:

Abreu: 2.03

Neris: 2.08

France: 2.30

Montero: 2.31

Net WPA since July 1 Bullpen:

Neris .55

Pressly: .42

Abreu: .40

Mushinski: .20

Stanek: .09

Martinez: .05

Montero: .04

Graveman: .00

Maton: -.86

Thanks for reading!