Updated Projections - Game 11 of 162
Bullpen to the rescue
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 6.8%
Preseason Projections: 93.2%
Hats off to the bullpen for 8.2 shutout against THAT offense.
Season Projections
First base is turning into a black hole on offense (see stats of the day below).
Unfair to Henley, but such is the life of a baseball player.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Henley becomes the Astros 6th starter of the season, 11 games in.
Of note, Framber had high stress in both of his starts (128.14 and 104.55).
Number of 100+ Stress Starts on season:
Valdez 2 | Javier 1 | Brown 1 | France 1
Number of 115+ Stress Starts on season:
Valdez 1 | Javier 1 | France 1
Number of 125+ Stress Starts on season:
Valdez 1 | Javier 1
Magnificent job by the beleaguered bullpen, without using Pressly or Hader.
Martinez, Bielak and Scott all down today.
Will need a fresh arm from Sugar Land.
Scott pitched in high leverage with Abreu suspended.
The Game Turned When
Top 4, 5-5, 2 outs, runners on second and third, Kyle Tucker singled to center (Grounder). Jose Altuve scored, Yordan Alvarez scored increasing Astros win probability from 51.0% to 70.2% (+19.2%).
The Home Run Project
Caratini Bomb not as pretty as Yordan’s, but higher leverage and provided separation.
The Grumpy Ump
Added conditional formatting to show just how bad umps have been, but apparently Adrian Johnson is an Astros fan, as overall favor in Astros favor is far and away highest of season.
The under is now 7-3-1 in Astros games.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Still wild.
But the Astros gained 9 games with 1 win, so that should tell you how early we are in the season.
Stat(s) of the Day
Astros 1st basemen are slashing .100/.163/.100 with 0 HR and 0 RBI, 1 BB and 13 strikeouts through the first 11 games.
In 2023, the numbers for Astros 1st basemen were .237/.297/.402 with 24 HR, 103 RBI, 50 BB, and 142 strikeouts.
Thanks for reading!