Updated Projections - Game 111 of 162
Reunited and it feels so good
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 68.5%
Preseason Projections: 31.5%
Season Projections
A quick example of the difference between “on pace” for and projections: Kyle Tucker has 77 RBI after 111 games, putting him on pace for 112 RBI. My projection comes in at 108 RBI for Tucker.
Astros 162
Click on the image for episode 111.
Bullpen Usage
One would imagine we won’t see Pressly (or Montero) today.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
Significant experience for both starters against the opponent, with a heavy advantage to Verlander.
K Prop
My number comes in at 5.89, while the market comes in at 6.5. I’d take the under here as JV would have to hit 7.
Odds
Astros -138 on the MoneyLine and +118 -1.5. I’ll take the former, but with Pressly theoretically down today, closing could be an adventure for the Astros.
Projected Standings
Luck Rankings
May not mean anything notes of the day
The Astros have 50 quality starts in 111 games.
When getting a quality start: 37-13
When not getting a quality start: 26-35
While it’s true “all you have to do is pitch 6 innings and give up 3 runs” for a quality start,that has happened in exactly 6 (12%) of the Astros quality starts. It’s a straw man argument. Last night we saw a 323-foot home run to left field in Yankee Stadium. That doesn’t negate the value of the home run (it still counted) or mean every home run to left in Yankee Stadium is “cheap”. To wit, later we saw a 435-foot blast to left, which no one thought was cheap.
Average Astros Quality Start in 2023:
6.57 IP 4.36 H 1.66 R 1.44 ER 5.92 K 1.74 BB 1.97 ERA