Updated Projections - Game 116 of 162

Home, sweet home. Briefly.

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 71.6%

Preseason Projections: 28.4%

Season Projections

Altuve crushed Orioles pitching.

Good 6 inning for Brown. Not a good 6 innings +.

Astros 162

Click on the image for episode 116.

Bullpen Usage

All high-leverage relievers have had at least one day.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Serious history for both of tonight’s starters with advantage JV as one would expect.

K Prop

Fascinating handicap with JV’s return to Minute Maid. The market is at 6.5, but my number comes in at 5.96. Will he be amped for his return? Maybe. JV’s ability to go 7 is something I have to consider, but ultimately, I’m gonna leave this one alone.

Odds

Houston is -200, which implies a 66.67% chance of winning for the Astros on the MoneyLine.

The better bet is Astros -1.5 at +104, which my beta model gives a 50.51% chance of winning.

Projected Standings

Luck Rankings

May not mean anything notes of the day

Jose Altuve vs. Orioles: 8 for 14, 2 doubles, HR, 4 RBI .571/.600/.929 .641 wOBA 327 wRC+

Shutdowns: Neris 25 Pressly 23

Meltdowns: Neris 3 Pressly 8

gmLI: Pressly 1.55 Neris 1.42

Thanks for reading!