Updated Projections - Game 12 of 162
The one that got away
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 7.4%
Preseason Projections: 92.6%
Tough loss after an early 3-0 lead.
Season Projections
Yordan on fire (see Stats of the Day below).
Spencer Arrighetti will be next up to make his debut, and we profiled him back in November.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Arrighetti will become the 7th Astros starting pitcher in 13 games.
High stress for Javier last night.
Number of 100+ Stress Starts on season:
Valdez 2 | Javier 2 | Brown 1 | France 1
Number of 115+ Stress Starts on season:
Valdez 1 | Javier 2 | France 1
Number of 125+ Stress Starts on season:
Valdez 1 | Javier 1
Used the heck out of high-leverage relievers in an L last night.
Imagine Pressly will be down for a couple days, Abreu has pitched in 3 of last 4, Hader 2 of 3 and Montero 3 of 4.
The Game Turned When
Bottom of the 5th, runner on third, two out: Vinnie Pasquantino reached on error to third (Grounder). Bobby Witt Jr. scored on error. Error by Alex Bregman.
Royals win probability went from 40.5% to 53.2% (+12.8%).
The Home Run Project
No home runs last night.
The Grumpy Ump
Added conditional formatting to show just how bad umps have been, in general.
Straight A’s for Jansen Visconti in game 12.
The under is now 8-3-1 in Astros games.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Still wild.
New Episode of True Tale from the Big Leagues
Parker Coleman and I talked about the craziness of the 1972 Braves. Give it a listen, if you are so inclined.
Stat(s) of the Day
Over his last 6 games Yordan Alvarez is slashing .560/.593/1.160 with 3 doubles, 4 home runs and 11 RBI.
The Astros are 2-2 when getting a quality start and 0-4 in one-run games.
Thanks for reading!