Updated Projections - Game 121 of 162
What just happened?
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 74.7%
Preseason Projections: 25.3%
Season Projections
Tough season for Altuve, injury-wise.
France and Brown make their first relief appearances of the year and both get wins.
Astros 162
Click on the image for episode 121.
Bullpen Usage
I imagine Abreu is down, having been used in 3 of the last 4, but everyone else (except for Brown) should be good to go.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
Verlander with good numbers against the Marlins and I know it won’t happen, but Astros sure could use Altuve vs. Luzardo.
K Prop
The number is 5.5 and my number comes in at 6.90. Over.
Odds
The Astros are -124, which equates to a 55.36% implied win probability.
The run line at -1.5 drops down to a 41.72% probability with my numbers.
With JV on the mound, a relatively rested bullpen and an off day tomorrow, I like the Astros MoneyLine only.
The Marlins play too many close games to bet the Run Line.
Projected Standings
Luck Rankings
May not mean anything notes of the day
Chas since June 1:
211 PA .319/.408/.577 12 HR 34 RBI 9 SB .419 wOBA 173 wRC+
Z-Swing% (season, minimum 50 PA)
Yainer Diaz 77.6
Mauricio Dubon 74.7
Jeremy Pena 72.9
Kyle Tucker 69.5
Jake Meyers 67.1
Since August 1:
9-5 record
Team ERA: 3.47 Starters ERA: 4.37 Relievers ERA: 1.59
Batters: .259/.352/.424 w/.340 wOBA 20 HR 118 wRC+
Thanks for reading!