Updated Projections - Game 124 of 162

Aug 20, 2023

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 76.5%

Preseason Projections: 23.5%

An abbreviated version today with a short turnaround.

There may also be abbreviated versions in the coming weeks as I begin physical therapy treatment on Wednesday.

Altuve with a milestone, keeps on rolling.

Framber struggling (see below).

Click on the image for episode 124.

Four relievers used in a blowout loss and Brown comes off the list with today’s start.

Emerson Hancock has 10 IP in his MLB career, none against the Astros.

6.5 is the listed number for Brown and while his experience against the Mariners is limited, I’m on the over.

Astros -180 on the MoneyLine implies a win probability of 64.29%.

The Run Line number is +116, which implies a 46.30% chance of hitting. My number comes in at 48.68%, which leaves a 2.38% value on the Astros -1.5.

Framber Valdez’s last three starts:

19.2 IP 24 H 16 R 15 ER 12 K 5 BB 5 HR 6.86 ERA

Since August 1:

Record: 10-7

Team ERA: 3.81 Starters ERA: 4.76 Relievers ERA: 1.95

Batters: .259/.347/.440 w/.343 wOBA 26 HR 120 wRC+

Thanks for reading!