Updated Projections - Game 125 of 162

Swept away

Marty Coleman

Aug 21, 2023

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 77.2%

Preseason Projections: 23.8%

Season Projections

Altuve continues to rake, picking up 2 hits on Sunday.

See below for more detail, but the starting pitchers have faltered in August.

Astros 162

Click on the image for episode 125.

Bullpen Usage

Mushinski is shown here, but I guessed during the game he will be optioned after back-to-back appearances and that has happened.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Would be more confident in 2022 Javier.

K Prop

5.5 is the listed number for Javier and my number comes in at 4.73. Screams under.

Odds

Astros -154 on the MoneyLine implies a win probability of 56.52%.

The Run Line number is +152, which implies a 39.68% chance of hitting. My number comes in at 42.79%, which leaves a 3.11% value on the Astros -1.5, but I wouldn’t bet it at below 43%.

Projected Standings

Luck Rankings

May not mean anything notes of the day

Starting Pitchers ERAs in August:

France 2.77

Verlander 4.50

Blanco 4.50

Valdez 4.71

Javier 5.65

Urquidy 6.48

Brown 7.98

Since August 1:

Record: 10-8

Team ERA: 3.99 Starters ERA: 5.17 Relievers ERA: 1.89

Batters: .263/.349/.442 w/.344 wOBA 26 HR 120 wRC+

Thanks for reading!