Updated Projections - Game 126 of 162

How quickly things can change

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 77.8%

Preseason Projections: 22.2%

Season Projections

For a minute I thought Chas had peaked…and then…

Another short outing by a starter, with extensive bullpen use. Hopefully, JV can provide some length tonight.

Astros 162

Click on the image for episode 126.

Bullpen Usage

With miles to go before an off day, the Astros could use length from JV tonight.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Not much experience for Houck against the Astros, but could be a big night for Devers.

K Prop

5.5 is the listed number for JV and my number comes in at 6.31. Over.

Odds

Astros -164 on the MoneyLine implies a win probability of 62.12%.

The Run Line number is +125, which implies a 44.44% chance of hitting. My number comes in at 47.25%, which leaves a 2.81% value on the Astros -1.5, but I wouldn’t bet it at 47.25.

Astros on MoneyLine would be my bet.

Projected Standings

A virtual tie between Astros and Mariners as both close in on the Rangers.

Luck Rankings

May not mean anything notes of the day

Jose Altuve since 7/26 (return from IL):

106 PA .398/.472/.570 3 HR 11 RBI 8/9 SB .449 wOBA 193 wRC+

Chas McCormick since 6/1:

233 PA .318/.408/.597 15 HR 40 RBI 9/12 SB .425 wOBA 177 wRC+

---

Since August 1:

Record: 11-8

Team ERA: 3.85 Starters ERA: 5.18 Relievers ERA: 1.92

Batters: .271/.353/.457 w/.351 wOBA 29 HR 125 wRC+

Thanks for reading!