Updated Projections - Game 127 of 162

King Tuck

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 78.4%

Preseason Projections: 21.6%

Season Projections

Tucker has been on fire for an extended period (see notes near end).

Exactly what the Astros needed from JV - both the 6 innings and the “Howdy-do” to Cora.

Astros 162

Click on the image for episode 127.

Bullpen Usage

Three arms used, three arms rested.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Neither starter has had overwhelming success against their opponent.

K Prop

5.5 is the listed number for Urquidy and my number comes in at 4.86, so I would be on the under.

Odds

Astros -120 on the MoneyLine implies a win probability of 54.55%.

The Run Line number is +164, which implies a 37.88% chance of hitting. My number comes in at 41.67%, which leaves a 3.79% value on the Astros -1.5.

There’s value there, but for my money 41.67% is too low.

Astros on MoneyLine only would be my bet.

Projected Standings

Perhaps Fangraphs was closer to right than I was back in July, at least as it pertains to the Rangers.

There are still 35ish games to go, so the Rangers could still end up with the 99 wins I forecasted, but they’d have to go 27-9 to do so. Not likely.

On the flip side, they’d have to go 17-19 to finish with the 89 wins FG projected at that point. Not probable, but more likely in my mind.

Mine has adjusted down to 95 and theirs has gone up to 91.

I did caveat my 99-win projection with “injuries could be a factor”, and of course, they have been (Seager, Heim, Jung).

That’s fun, but I just noticed Fangraphs now projects the Astros to win the West in a wild three-team, two-game difference finish. I’m here for it.

Luck Rankings

May not mean anything notes of the day

Kyle Tucker since 7/1:

188 PA .319/.406/.650 14 HR 45 RBI 10/12 SB 23 K 23 BB .435 wOBA 184 wRC+

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Since August 1:

Record: 12-8

Team ERA: 3.94 Starters ERA: 4.90 Relievers ERA: 2.25

Batters: .269/.353/.455 w/.350 wOBA 30 HR 124 wRC+

Thanks for reading!