Updated Projections - Game 13 of 162

Struggling

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 8.0%

Preseason Projections: 92.0%

With 92% of the Astros season remaining, Houston is struggling.

Season Projections

Down goes Abreu (see Stats of the Day below).

Young starters being put in tough spots.

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Number of 100+ Stress Starts on season:

Valdez 2 | Javier 2 | Brown 1 | France 1

Number of 115+ Stress Starts on season:

Valdez 1 | Javier 2 | France 1

Number of 125+ Stress Starts on season:

Valdez 1 | Javier 1

Low-stress pitches, but a lot of them, for Bielak and Mushinski.

The Game Turned When

Top of the 2nd, runners on first and third, one out. Jose Abreu grounded into a double play to shortstop (Grounder). Chas McCormick out at second.

Astros win probability dropped from 56.5% to 44.7% (-11.8%).

The Home Run Project

Zero home runs in two games in Kansas City.

The Grumpy Ump

Added conditional formatting to show just how bad umps have been, in general.

Derek Thomas had the best night of the season calling strikes.

The under is 8-4-1 in Astros games.

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Pretty sure the Astros aren’t going to finish 39 games out of first place.

Also pretty sure they need to start winning some games.

New Episode of True Tale from the Big Leagues

Parker Coleman and I talked about the craziness of the 1972 Braves. Give it a listen, if you are so inclined.

Stat(s) of the Day

Jose Abreu is slashing .081/.146/.081 with a .119 wOBA, .160 xwOBA and -32 wRC+, with 13 strikeouts and 1 walk.

Abreu slashed .308/.419/.500 during the Spring.

Stuff+ for Astros starting pitchers (Arrighetti’s numbers not posted at press time):

Thanks for reading!