Updated Projections - Game 15 of 162

Season in the balance

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 9.3%

Preseason Projections: 90.7%

The Astros are 4-11 and have 5 games with the Rangers (2) and Braves (3) left on the homestand before a day off on Thursday.

Season Projections

Through 15 games.

Another day, another name added, another name lined through.

Are the Charts helping?

Let me know if the charts/graphs are making things easier to see rather than a jumble of numbers.

Plan is to add more if readers desire.

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Number of 100+ Stress Starts on season:

Valdez 2 | Javier 2 | Brown 1 | France 1

Number of 115+ Stress Starts on season:

Valdez 1 | Javier 2 | France 1

Number of 125+ Stress Starts on season:

Valdez 1 | Javier 1

I never imagined this many low-stress pitches on the bullpen. May need to rethink the calculation.

The Game Turned When

Top 3, bases loaded 1 out. Wyatt Langford singled to left (Fly). Evan Carter scored. Adolis Garcia scored on error. Josh Smith advanced to 3B on error. Wyatt Langford advanced to 2B. Error by Mauricio Dubon.

Rangers win probability increased by 14.3%.

The Home Run Project

Two low-leverage homers for Tuck.

The Grumpy Ump

Why do umpires have much more problems with strikes than balls?

As bad as Angel Hernandez was, he apparently favored the Astros. Just ask Wyatt Langford. Oof.

Three straight overs says more about the Astros pitching staff than the umpires.

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Ridiculous, but insightful.

New Episode of True Tale from the Big Leagues

Parker Coleman and I talked about the craziness of the 1972 Braves. Give it a listen, if you are so inclined.

Stat(s) of the Day

Houston is second in MLB in wRC+ at 124 and 30th in BsR (baserunning) at -3.3.

It’s difficult to believe, but three teams have worse ERAs than the Astros starting pitchers.

Houston’s starter’s ERA is 5.79, while Minnesota (6.06), Washington (6.08) and Colorado (6.38) trail the Astros.

The Astros bullpen ERA is 23rd in the league at 5.31.

Thanks for reading!