Updated Projections - Game 17 of 162
Two in a row
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 10.5%
Preseason Projections: 89.5%
The Astros are 6-11, in last place in the AL West and 2.5 games out of first place.
Fangraphs projects an 86-76 finish and first place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 52.4% chance of winning the Division.
Season Projections
Jose Altuve is on fire and now projects to 26 home runs and 60 RBI.
Nice outing by Javier.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Number of 100+ Stress Starts on season:
Valdez 2 | Javier 2 | Brown 1 | France 1
Number of 115+ Stress Starts on season:
Valdez 1 | Javier 2 | France 1
Number of 125+ Stress Starts on season:
Valdez 1 | Javier 1
Lower stress outing for Javier, though he’s still 100+ average for the season.
Despite the home run given up by Martinez, a low-stress bullpen night and with consecutive quality starts the bullpen is finally getting somewhat of a break.
The Game Turned When
Bottom of 4th, runners on 1st and second, 0 outs, 2-1 Astros. Victor Caratini doubled to left (Grounder). Chas McCormick scored. Jeremy Pena advanced to 3B.
Astros win probability increased by 11%.
This came in just ahead of Altuve’s 1st home run (added 10.2%) and 2nd home run (added 9.9%).
The Home Run Project
Altuve’s home runs had a 0.87 LI and 0.59 LI, respectively.
The Grumpy Ump
A good game from Emil Jimenez behind the plate.
Five straight and six of seven overs.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Ridiculous, but insightful.
Probably biggest surprise is the Diamondbacks over the Dodgers in the NL West, but the big caution is it’s still early.
Or maybe the White Sox projected for 26 wins.
Astros still near bottom, but jump a bit.
Higher numbers suggest regression is coming for teams like Rays, Athletics, Blue Jays and Tigers.
Lower numbers suggest positive regression is a distinct possibility for teams like Marlins,Rockies, Diamondbacks and Astros.
Huge caveat that we are ~10% of the way through the season and volatility is extremely high.
Power Rankings
Just for fun. Threw this together. Thoughts?
Criteria are objective, numbers-driven, including xWins, OPS+ and ERA+.
Rankings are not predictive, but a measure of how teams have been playing to date.
New Episode of True Tale from the Big Leagues
Parker Coleman and I talked about the craziness of the 1972 Braves. Give it a listen, if you are so inclined.
Stat(s) of the Day
Spencer Arrighetti registered Stuff+ of 56 in his first start, with a Location+ of 88 and Pitching+ of 98.
Arrighetti averaged 95.0 MPH on his fastball.
Prospecting - Brice Matthews
The Astros 2023 No. 1 pick is slashing .259/.417/.333 with 0 homers, 4 RBI, 7 walks and 10 strikeouts at A+ Asheville in 27 at-bats.
Matthews has stolen 4 bases, been caught stealing twice and made 2 errors in 23 total chances for a .913 fielding percentage.
Thanks for reading!