Updated Projections - Game 19 of 162
Whitley Debuts
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 11.7%
Preseason Projections: 88.3%
The Astros are 6-13, in last place in the AL West and 3.5 games out of first place.
Fangraphs projects an 85-77 finish and first place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 45.8% chance of winning the Division.
Season Projections
A bad call ends Altuve’s on-base streak, but putrid offense in general, despite the comparison below.
A stellar performance by Brown.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Just over 80 for Brown shows just how in control he was.
Team average stress per start is 87.44.
Dubin left in a bit long.
Whitley did not embarrass himself, but struggled to throw strikes (see below).
The Game Turned When
Top 2, 2 outs, 0 on. Orlando Arcia homered (Fly).
This play moved the Braves win probability from from 46.0% to 56.9% (+10.9%).
What a weird play.
The Home Run Project
A .09 LI for Tuck’s homerun in 6-0 game in 9th.
The Grumpy Ump
Not a bad night from Alex Tosi, but he still managed to end Altuve’s on-base streak all by himself on a bad called third strike that should have been ball four.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Ridiculous, but insightful.
The Astros currently project to 99 losses.
Astros 28th in Luck Rankings, suggesting there will be a turn at some point. Let’s hope soon.
Stat(s) of the Day
Forrest Whitley topped out at 98.7 MPH on his 14th pitch last night, a sinker to Matt Olson.
Per BaseballSavant, Whitley threw 11 sinkers, 5 cutters and 2 splitters, for 8 strikes (44.4%). His only Whiff came on a cutter.
Since the off day on April 4, Chas McCormick is slashing .133/.278/.167 with a wOBA of .228.
Astros vs. League - Batting
O-Swing Rates (Fangraphs)
Thanks for reading!
