Updated Projections - Game 20 of 162
The Return of JV
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 12.3%
Preseason Projections: 87.7%
The Astros are 6-14, in last place in the AL West and 4.5 games out of first place.
Fangraphs projects an 84-78 finish and first place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 40.6% chance of winning the Division.
Season Projections
First base is the gift that keeps on giving.
Another good start, another L.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Over 100 for France, leaves him close to a triple-digit average for his four starts.
Team average stress per start is 88.29.
Extremely high stress for Pressly and Martinez in a loss, with Hader having moderately high stress.
The Game Turned When
Top 8, runners on 2nd and 3rd, 0 outs. Matt Olson reached on error to first (Grounder). Michael Harris II scored on error. Austin Riley advanced to 3B. Error by Jose Abreu.
The Braves win probability moved from 39.0% to 54.9%, increasing by 15.9%.
The Home Run Project
Yordan’s Crawford Box shot came in at 0.62 LI, while Dubon’s HR registered a 0.83.
The Grumpy Ump
For the 10th time (not all shown) in 20 games the Called Strike Accuracy registered below 90%.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
The Astros currently project to 100 losses.
Astros remain 28th in Luck Rankings, suggesting there will be a turn at some point.
Houston is 0-4 in one-run games and 0-2 in extra-innings (there’s some overlap).
Stat(s) of the Day
In 113 starts, Justin Verlander is 68-22 with a 2.36 ERA for the Astros, averaging 11.1 strikeouts and 1.6 BB per 9 innings.
Astros Bullpen vs. League Average
Thanks for reading!
