Updated Projections - Game 22 of 162

Another one that got away

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 13.6%

Preseason Projections: 86.4%

The Astros are 7-15, in last place in the AL West and 4.0 games out of first place.

Fangraphs projects an 84-78 finish and second place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 40.8% chance of winning the Division and a 58.9% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

The rate of pop-ups for Bregman is incredible (see Stats of Day below).

Another quality start by Blanco.

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Highest stress of season for Blanco. Shame he wasn’t rewarded with a W.

Team average stress per start is 88.82.

Very high stress for Abreu and Pressly in a loss. Imagine they are down today.

Added column to show what % of total stress reliever has shouldered on season.

The Game Turned When

Bottom 9, runners on 2nd and 3rd, 0 outs, Jesse Winker singled to center (Grounder). Nick Senzel scored. CJ Abrams scored.

The Nationals’ win probability went from 45.0% to 71.6%, an increase of 26.6%.

The Home Run Project

No home runs yesterday.

The Grumpy Ump

Sometimes the analytics and eye balls are in synch.

Manny Gonzalez was below average in every category.

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

The Astros currently project to 98 losses.

Houston is 0-6 in one-run games and 0-3 in extra-innings (there’s some overlap).

The Colorado Rockies (0-5) are the only other team without a one-run win.

Stat(s) of the Day

Batting average/Expected Batting average

Pop Up %

One of these is not like the others.

Interestingly, the Astros team average (5.4) is much lower than the MLB average (7.2).

Starts in Centerfield

Jake Meyers 11 Mauricio Dubon 8 Chas McCormick 3

Power Rankings

Thanks for reading!