Updated Projections - Game 25 of 162
Another day, another L
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 15.4%
Preseason Projections: 84.62%
The Astros are 7-18, in last place in the AL West and 6.0 games out of first place.
Fangraphs projects an 82-80 finish and third place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 29.1% chance of winning the Division and a 45.3% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Singleton projects over the Mendoza line.
First innings have been a problem.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Team average stress per start is 84.80.
Note that two pitchers who average over 100 have both been placed on IL.
One way to avoid stress is to fall behind in the first inning.
Good outings from Dubin, Montero and Pressly.
The Game Turned When
Bottom 1st, 2 outs, runners on first and second, Dansby Swanson homered (Fly). Ian Happ scored, Christopher Morel scored, moving Cubs win probability from 64.0% to 84.8% (+20.8%).
The Home Run Project
Jose Altuve: 28-degree launch angle, 105.4 MPH exit velo, 390 feet, 1.52 LI.
This is the second-highest leverage home run for the Astros this season, behind Yordan Alvarez’s on April 7 off Dane Dunning.
The Grumpy Ump
Not a terrible day for Mike Muchlinski, but two Astros were called out on strikes on pitches that were balls.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
The Astros currently project to 104 losses.
Hard to believe two teams are “unluckier” than the Astros, but here we are.
Houston is 0-7 in one-run games and 0-3 in extra-innings (there’s some overlap).
Houston is the only team without a one-run win.
Stat(s) of the Day
The Astros are slashing .253/.319/.349 with runners in scoring position.
Astros first basemen have combined to slash .124/.194/.157 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 24 strikeouts
BsR, the Fangraphs baserunning metric, finds the Astros 29th.
Thanks for reading!