Updated Projections - Game 26 of 162
Wake me up when it's over
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 16.0%
Preseason Projections: 84.0%
EDITOR’S NOTE: Apparently losing is good for business as we have broken the record for views in a month with 5 days remaining.
Thank you to those who have read and shared. More to come.
The Astros are 7-19, in last place in the AL West and 6.5 games out of first place.
Fangraphs projects an 82-80 finish and third place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 27.6% chance of winning the Division and a 43.0% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Singleton back under the Mendoza line.
Inefficient outing by JV.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
JV with highest stress outing of the year for a starter. Espada was right for removing him when he did.
Team average stress per start is 86.98.
Note two pitchers who average over 100 have both been placed on IL and now JV is over 100 average.
Off days help, but lots of stress on Montero and Abreu has now moved into first place (most stress) on the season.
The Game Turned When
Bottom 6, 1-1 score, runner on 2nd, Pete Crow-Armstrong homered (Fly). Miguel Amaya scored moving Cubs win probability from 60.5% to 83.3% (+22.8%).
The Home Run Project
No home runs yesterday.
The Grumpy Ump
The Astros are 0-2 with two unders with Jansen Visconti behind the plate.
All three of the most impactful calls went the Cubs way.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
The Astros currently project to 105 losses.
Houston drops to 29th in Luck Rankings, ahead of only Miami.
Houston is 0-7 in one-run games and 0-3 in extra-innings (there’s some overlap).
Houston is the only team without a one-run win.
Stat(s) of the Day
Astros first basemen have combined to slash .130/.206/.163 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 25 strikeouts
With 2 outs and RISP the Astros are slashing .222/.300/.265
In Late/Close situations the Astros are slashing .221/.282/.260
Shutdowns and Meltdowns
We’ve discussed this topic before, but this is a 6% gain in win probability (Shutdown) or a 6% loss in win probability (Meltdown).
Here’s fangraphs on the topic.
Thanks for reading!