Updated Projections - Game 28 of 162
Astros sweep Rockies, plan to call up Loperfido
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 17.3%
Preseason Projections: 82.7%
EDITOR’S NOTE: Apparently losing is good for business as we have broken the record for views in a month with 5 days remaining.
Thank you to those who have read and shared. More to come.
The Astros are 9-19, in last place in the AL West and 7.0 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 83-79 finish, 2nd place (by percentage points) in the AL West, gives the Astros a 31.5% chance of winning the Division and a 49.4% chance of making the playoffs.
Reports: Loperfido gets the Call
Reports are that Joey Loperfido will be recalled in time for Tuesday’s game.
Here’s a post we did on Loperfido in November.
The Future: Joey Loperfido
Season Projections
No official transaction is listed for Loperfido as of yet, so this stays as is.
Separated active for a cleaner look.
Numbers for non-active players will continue to decrease as season progresses.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Nice, 71-pitch outing for Framber upon return from IL.
Team average stress per start is 86.71.
Note two pitchers who average over 100 have spent time on IL and now JV is over 100 average.
Nice outing from all relievers.
They have used the heck out of Abreu.
The Game Turned When
Top 3, 1 out, bases empty. Jose Altuve homered (Fly), moving Astros win probability from 47.2% to 56.8% (+9.6%).
Pena’s home run was right behind at +9.4%.
The Home Run Project
Kyle Tucker: 35-degree launch angle, 100.5 MPH exit velocity, 456 feet, 0.41 LI.
Jose Altuve: 40-degree launch angle, 106.3 MPH exit velocity, 438 feet, 0.76 LI.
Jeremy Pena: 30-degree launch angle, 100.1 MPH exit velocity, 416 feet, 0.96 LI.
The Grumpy Ump
The first 100% accuracy (called balls) on the season.
Under has hit 17 times in first 28 games, including both in Mexico City.
Overs: 8 Push: 3
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
The Astros currently project to 96 losses.
66 wins is the highest projected total since April 14 (69).
Houston drops to 29th in Luck Rankings as Diamondbacks win one-run game.
Houston is 0-7 in one-run games and 0-3 in extra-innings (there’s some overlap).
Houston is the only team without a one-run win.
Stat(s) of the Day
Batting average with RISP.
Across MLB about 34% of games are quality starts with the team getting the quality start winning almost 70% of the time in 2024.
If one team gets a quality start and the other doesn’t, the win percentage for the team that gets the QS improves to 79%.
The Astros are 5-4 when getting a quality start and 4-15 when they don’t.
The Astros are 1-2 when both teams get a quality start and 4-2 when the Astros get a quality start and the other team doesn’t.
Thanks for reading!