Updated Projections - Game 31 of 162

Sakes alive, it's 4 of 5!

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 19.1%

Preseason Projections: 80.9%

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The Astros are 11-20, tied for fourth in the AL West and 6.0 games behind the Seattle Mariners.

Fangraphs projects an 83-79 finish, tied for 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 29.1% chance of winning the Division and a 48.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Altuve continues to rake, Bregman continues to pop up.

Nice outing by Arrighetti. ERA down to 8.27 and xERA at 4.35.

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Close to a quality start by Arrighetti, by far the best of his 4.

Team average stress per start is 86.52.

Note two pitchers who average over 100 have spent time on IL and now JV is over 100 average.

High-leverage arms get the day off.

The Game Turned When

Bottom 6, runner on 3rd, 2 outs. Jon Singleton homered (Fly). Jeremy Pena scored. Astros win probability jumps from 37.2% to 70.7& (+33.5%).

The Home Run Project

Congratulations if you had Jon Singleton as the Astro with the highest average leverage on home runs in early may.

Jon Singleton: 43-degree launch angle, 100.1 MPH exit velocity, 345 feet, 2.46 LI.

The Grumpy Ump

Mark Carlson struggled to call strikes correctly.

If you’re counting at home, that’s 6 of the last 7 games where the “Overall Favor” was to the opponent.

Under: 18 Over: 10 Push: 3

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

The Astros currently project to 92 losses.

Rockies one-run loss sends them to the bottom. The Astros are 1-8 in one-run games and 1-4 in extra innings (there is overlap).

Stat(s) of the Day

• Spencer Arrighetti threw only 5 sweepers, but generated 4 swings and 3 whiffs.

• Batters vs. Ronel Blanco:

  • Four-Seamer (37.3%): .129/.298/.323

  • Changeup (31.6%): .122/.182/.146

  • Slider: (20.7%): .133/.151/.133

  • Both home runs have come off Four-Seamer

  • Blanco has given up just 3 extra-base hits in 128 batters faced.

  Productive Outs

  As defined by Stathead (that’s where the data came from)

  PrdOut

  Opp -- Productive Outs Made or Failed
  Created by Elias and ESPN for three possible situations.
  1. Successful Sac for a pitcher with one out.
  2. Advancing any runner with none out.
  3. Driving in a baserunner with the second out of the inning.
  

  Failed means the batter made an out without advancing the runner(s).

  

  Thanks for reading!