Updated Projections - Game 32 of 162
Astros are 5-1 in last 6
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 19.8%
Preseason Projections: 80.2%
The Astros are 12-20, tied for fourth in the AL West and 5.0 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 84-78 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 32.8% chance of winning the Division and a 50.7% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Altuve projects to higher OPS than Alvarez.
Another solid performance by Blanco.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Solid, 94 pitch outing by Blanco with aLI of 0.87.
Beautiful inning by Martinez. Successful, but less efficient innings by Pressly and Hader.
The Game Turned When
Bottom 7, 2 outs, runner on third. Jose Altuve singled to third (Bunt Grounder). Jake Meyers scored. Astros win probability increased from 57.3% to 76.9% (+19.5%).
The Home Run Project
No home runs last night.
The Grumpy Ump
The Astros are 2-0 with Adrian Johnson behind the plate and he has apparently favored the Astros heavily both times, favoring them by 1.41 runs on April 11 and 1.19 runs last night.
Under: 19 Over: 10 Push: 3
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
The Astros currently project to 90 losses.
You can see the effect 5 wins in 6 games has had on this graph.
Astros remain 29th in luck rankings. This means Houston has been the second “unluckiest” team in MLB and is due for some positive regression.
Stat(s) of the Day
Joey Lopefido has faced right-handed pitchers in all 11 of his plate appearances.
Josh Hader threw four sinkers 97 MPH or higher in the 9th inning last night. 3 were balls and the other resulted in a fly out to left (Cal Raleigh).
Ronel Blanco has given up 5 extra-base hits on the season. 4 home runs and a double.
Jorge Polanco hit his homerun on a change-up, while Dylan Moore hit a Four Seam Fastball.
Blanco’s ERA is 2.09 and xERA is 2.31, while his xBA (.179) is in the top 7% of the league and his xSLG (.284) is in the top 10% of the league.