Updated Projections - Game 34 of 162

Sleepless in Houston

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 21.0%

Preseason Projections: 79.0%

The Astros are 12-22, tied for fourth in the AL West and 7.0 games behind the Seattle Mariners.

Fangraphs projects an 82-80 finish, third place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 22.4% chance of winning the Division and a 39.9% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Jon Singleton. Offensive catalyst.

Hunter Brown’s ERA goes down.

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Imagine if Bielak hadn’t eaten 3 innings on Saturday.

The Game Turned When

Top 9, 1 out, bases empty. Cal Raleigh homered (Liner). Mariners win probability improved from 44.1% to 82.2% (38.1%).

The Home Run Project

Singleton continues to lead the way, but technically Caratini has the higher average LI on HR.

Kyle Tucker: 97.8 MPH exit velo, 32-degree launch, 363 feet, 1.40 LI.

Jon Singleton: 100.5 MPH exit velo, 26-degree launch, 379 feet, 3.09 LI.

The Grumpy Ump

Apparently, Junior had a good day.

Under: 20 Over: 11 Push: 3

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Astros project to 69-93.

Astros are 1-9 in one-run games.

Stat(s) of the Day

Yordan Alvarez slashed .130/.231/.174 with 0 HR and 0 RBI, .200 wOBA and 26 wRC+ in six games last week.