Updated Projections - Game 35 of 162

Sleepless in New York

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 21.6%

Preseason Projections: 78.4%

The Astros are 12-23, last in the American League West, 8.0 games behind the Texas Rangers.

Fangraphs projects an 82-80 finish, third place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 18.6% chance of winning the Division and a 34.8% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Jacob Amaya out of the witness protection program.

Verlander’s numbers take a hit.

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Imagine if Bielak hadn’t eaten 3 innings on Saturday.

The Game Turned When

Bottom 1, runners on first and second, 1 out, 1-0 Astros. Alex Verdugo homered (Fly). Juan Soto scored. Aaron Judge scored. Yankees win probability went from 48.4% to 72.3% (+23.9%).

The Home Run Project

Kyle Tucker: 108.1 MPH exit velo, 26-degree launch, 399 feet, 0.62 LI.

The Grumpy Ump

Under: 20 Over: 12 Push: 3

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Astros project to 66-96. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.

Astros are 1-9 in one-run games.

Stat(s) of the Day

Alex Bregman in May: .095/.240/.095 with .183 wOBA 15 wRC+

Yainer Diaz in May: .176/.176/.176 with .158 wOBA -2 wRC+

This is my sweet spot, in between the Pythag and Winning %.

One (Pythag) includes only run differential. Another (Winning %) includes only wins and losses.

My formula blends both for a more realistic estimation.