Updated Projections - Game 36 of 162

Another bashing

May 09, 2024

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 22.2%

Preseason Projections: 77.8%

The Astros are 12-24, last in the American League West, 8.5 games behind the Texas Rangers.

Fangraphs projects an 81-81 finish, third place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 17.5% chance of winning the Division and a 31.3% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

The Game Turned When

Bottom 1, runner on first, 0 out, 1-0 Astros. Juan Soto homered (Fly). Anthony Volpe scored.

Yankees win probability went from 48.1% to 64.8% (+16.7%).

The Home Run Project

Kyle Tucker: 105.0 MPH exit velo, 26-degree launch, 395 feet, 0.62 LI.

Jeremy Pena: 96.4 MPH exit velo, 30-degree launch, 379 feet, 0.06 LI.

The Grumpy Ump

Under: 20 Over: 13 Push: 3

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Astros project to 65-97. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.

Astros are 1-9 in one-run games.