Updated Projections - Game 37 of 162

Jon Singleton to the rescue

May 10, 2024

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 22.8%

Preseason Projections: 77.2%

The Astros are 13-24, last in the American League West, 8.0 games behind the Texas Rangers.

Fangraphs projects an 82-80 finish, third place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 21.8% chance of winning the Division and a 35.9% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Jon Singleton to the rescue.

Blanco continues to impress.

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Second highest stress of the season from a starter (Verlander, April 25).

The Game Turned When

Top 1, 1 on, 2 out, 1-0 Astros. Jon Singleton homered (Fly). Jeremy Pena scored.

Astros win probability went from 57.7% to 74.8% (+17.1%).

The Home Run Project

Yordan Alvarez: 116.8 MPH exit velo, 23-degree launch, 395 feet, 0.40 LI.

Jon Singleton: 115.4 MPH exit velo, 28-degree launch, 442 feet, 0.72 LI.

The Grumpy Ump

Under: 21 Over: 13 Push: 3

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Astros project to 66-96. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.

Astros are 2-9 in one-run games.