Updated Projections - Game 38 of 162

Motor City Mojo

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 23.5%

Preseason Projections: 76.5%

The Astros are 14-24, in fourth place in the American League West, 7.0 games behind the Texas Rangers.

Fangraphs projects an 82-80 finish, third place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 23.9% chance of winning the Division and a 40.1% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

The Game Turned When

Top 8, 2-1 Detroit, 0 outs, runners on 1st and 2nd. Yordan Alvarez singled to right (Grounder). Jose Altuve scored. Kyle Tucker advanced to 3B.

Astros win probability went from 46.8% to 74.9% (+28.1%).

The Home Run Project

Kyle Tucker: 106.0 MPH exit velo, 28-degree launch, 409 feet, 1.23 LI.

The Grumpy Ump

Under: 22 Over: 13 Push: 3

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Astros project to 67-95. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.

Astros are 2-9 in one-run games.

Stat(s) of the Day