Updated Projections - Game 39 of 162

Motor City No Go

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 24.1%

Preseason Projections: 75.9%

The Astros are 14-25, in last place in the American League West, 7.0 games behind the Texas Rangers.

Fangraphs projects an 81-81 finish, third place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 23.0% chance of winning the Division and a 36.0% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

The Game Turned When

Bottom 2, bases loaded, 1 out, 1-0 Tigers. Mark Canha homered (Fly). Zach McKinstry scored. Jake Rogers scored. Riley Greene scored.

Tigers win probability went from 74.0% to 91.4% (+17.4%).

The Home Run Project

No home runs yesterday.

The Grumpy Ump

Early game today - Update not available at press time.

Under: 22 Over: 13 Push: 3

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Astros project to 65-97. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.

Astros are 2-9 in one-run games.

Stat(s) of the Day

Average Exit Velocity: Astros 89.5 MLB 88.8.

Average xwOBA: Astros .329 MLB .318