Updated Projections - Game 42 of 162
That was sticky
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 25.9%
Preseason Projections: 74.1%
No Updates on Sunday - I’ll be in Crawford Boxes
The Astros are 17-25, in 4th place in the American League West, 5.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 83-79 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 31.7% chance of winning the Division and a 47.3% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
The Game Turned When
Bottom 10, 1 out, runner on third. Victor Caratini singled to center (Grounder). Trey Cabbage scored.
Astros win probability went from 82.7% to 100.0% (+17.3%).
The Home Run Project
Alex Bregman: 101.4 MPH exit velo, 24-degree launch, 370 feet, 0.92 LI.
The Grumpy Ump
Under: 23 Over: 16 Push: 3
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Astros project to 72-90. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.
Astros are 3-9 in one-run games.
Stat(s) of the Day
Shutdowns and Meltdowns definition.
Thank you for reading.