Updated Projections - Game 44 of 162
Sweep
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 27.2%
Preseason Projections: 72.8%
No Updates Saturday/Sunday - I’ll be in Crawford Boxes
The Astros are 19-25, in 3rd place in the American League West, 5.0 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 84-78 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 34.5% chance of winning the Division and a 53.8% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Critical Moment
Bottom 3, 2 outs, bases load, 0-0. Yainer Diaz doubled to center (Liner). Kyle Tucker scored. Jeremy Pena scored. Jon Singleton scored.
Astros win probability went from 58.0% to 83.6% (+25.6%).
The Home Run Project
Joey Loperfido: 98.4 MPH exit velo, 31-degree launch angle, 354 feet, 0.42 LI.
The Grumpy Ump
Under: 24 Over: 16 Push: 4
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Astros project to 75-87. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.
Luck Rankings
Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.
The Astros are 3-9 in one-run games.
Stat(s) of the Day
Thank you for reading.