Updated Projections - Game 47 of 162

Nice Week

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 29.0%

Preseason Projections: 71.0

The Astros are 21-26, in 3rd place in the American League West, 4.0 games behind the Seattle Mariners.

Fangraphs projects an 84-78 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 39.0% chance of winning the Division and a 55.3% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Concerned about Verlander and Abreu’s stress level.

Verlander’s Saturday start was the second-highest for the team and himself and his average is right at 100.

Critical Moment

Bottom 1, 2 outs, runners on 2nd and 3rd, 2-1 Astros. Jake Meyers doubled to right (Grounder). Alex Bregman scored. Jeremy Pena scored.

Astros win probability went from 65.6% to 80.1% (+14.6%).

The Home Run Project

Jose Altuve: 97.0 MPH exit velo, 36-degree launch angle, 366 feet, 0.92 LI.

Kyle Tucker: 107.2 MPH exit velo, 22-degree launch angle, 390 feet, 0.13 LI.

Kyle Tucker: 99.2 MPH exit velo, 23-degree launch angle, 358 feet, 0.78 LI.

The Grumpy Ump

Under: 25 Over: 18 Push: 4

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Astros project to 77=85. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.

Luck Rankings

Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.

The Astros are 4-9 in one-run games.

Stat(s) of the Day

Thank you for reading.