Updated Projections - Game 48 of 162

That stings

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 29.6%

Preseason Projections: 70.4

The Astros are 21-27, in 3rd place in the American League West, 5.0 games behind the Seattle Mariners.

Fangraphs projects an 84-78 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 33.6% chance of winning the Division and a 50.3% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Concerned about Verlander and Abreu’s stress level.

Verlander’s Saturday start was the second-highest for the team and himself and his average is right at 100.

Critical Moment

Top 5, runners on 1st and 2nd, 2 outs, 6-4 Astros. Logan O'Hoppe homered (Fly). Taylor Ward scored. Kevin Pillar scored.

Astros win probability went from 76.2% to 40.0% (-36.2%).

The Home Run Project

Jose Altuve: 105.1 MPH exit velo, 35-degree launch angle, 398 feet, 1.74 LI.

Mauricio Dubon: 98.4 MPH exit velo, 32-degree launch angle, 372 feet, 0.57 LI.

The Grumpy Ump

Under: 25 Over: 19 Push: 4

Astros 0-2 with John Libka behind plate.

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Astros project to 76-86. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.

Luck Rankings

Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.

The Astros are 4-9 in one-run games.

Stat(s) of the Day

Thank you for reading.