Updated Projections - Game 49 of 162

Fighting back

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 30.2%

Preseason Projections: 69.8

The Astros are 22-27, in 3rd place in the American League West, 5.0 games behind the Seattle Mariners.

Fangraphs projects an 84-78 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 34.5% chance of winning the Division and a 52.9% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Concerned about Verlander and Abreu’s stress level.

Verlander’s Saturday start was the second-highest for the team and himself and his average is right at 100.

Critical Moment

Bottom 6, runner on second, one out, 4-2 Angels. Jon Singleton homered (Fly). Jeremy Pena scored.

Astros win probability went from 28.0% to 54.2% (+26.1%).

The Home Run Project

Kyle Tucker: 96.2 MPH exit velo, 35-degree launch angle, 340 feet, 0.64 LI.

Yordan Alvarez: 94.8 MPH exit velo, 34-degree launch angle, 358 feet, 0.65 LI.

Jon Singleton: 109.2 MPH exit velo, 25-degree launch angle, 432 feet, 1.91 LI.

Kyle Tucker: 104.8 MPH exit velo, 31-degree launch angle, 407 feet, 1.41 LI.

The Grumpy Ump

Under: 25 Over: 20 Push: 4

Second time with James Hoye behind the plate. First was the season opener against the Yankees.

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Astros project to 77-85. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.

Luck Rankings

Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.

The Astros are 5-9 in one-run games.

Stat(s) of the Day

Thank you for reading.