Updated Projections - Game 5 of 162
Darn near perfect
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 3.1%
Preseason Projections: 96.9%
What a beautifully pitched game.
Season Projections
Diaz continues to rake and Tucker now projected for 31 home runs.
What a night for Blanco, but the projections are still modest because of history.
Stress Index
Bear with me on this as it’s a work in progress.
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
A historic moment for Ronel Blanco and a day of rest for the bullpen as Blanco shoves 105 pitches with an average LI of 0.37.
About 2 weeks ago, Parker Coleman took a look at Astros no-hitter history.
The Game Turned When
Bottom 1, 1 on 1 out, Kyle Tucker homered (Fly). Jose Altuve scored improving the Astros win probability to 71.9% (+16.8%).
It would never dip below 70.7% for the rest of the game.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Coming in the next few days as data gaps are filled.
Why don’t I publish this early? Last night’s win moved the Astros projected wins from 37 to 80, that’s why.
A 43-game move based on 0.06% of the season.
More on Friday.
The Home Run Project
Charting the Leverage Index of every Astros home run.
Home runs in games that end 10-0 are destined to be low leverage.
The Grumpy Ump
I’m already frustrated with their process and timing. Last night’s scorecards are just being posted at 9:30 a.m. due to their sourcing from BaseballSavant.
I understand why they’re “slow”, but it doesn’t alleviate the frustration.
Expect a day delay in this information if the data is not available in a timely fashion.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
A rough night for Charlie behind the plate in such a well pitched game.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Stat(s) of the Day
Blanco topped out at 95.1 MPH (Four-Seam to Kiermaier in 2nd inning), threw his changeup 36 times (34.3%) and got 10 swings and misses on 24 swings on the changeup.
Jose Abreu did get a hit off a 93.7 MPH four-seam fastball from Bowden Francis last night in the 6th inning. The ball left the bat at 101.2 MPH.
Thanks for reading!