Updated Projections - Game 51 of 162

The JV we know and love

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 31.5%

Preseason Projections: 68.5

The Astros are 23-28, in 3rd place in the American League West, 3.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners.

Fangraphs projects an 84-78 finish, tied for first place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 43.1% chance of winning the Division and a 53.8% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Biggest Play

Top 4, runners on first and second, 0 outs, 1-0 Oakland. Yordan Alvarez doubled to center (Liner). Jose Altuve scored. Kyle Tucker advanced to 3B.

Astros win probability went from 49.0% to 67.4% (+18.4%).

The Home Run Project

Jake Meyers: 107.4 MPH exit velocity, 28-degree launch angle, 403 feet, 1.45 LI.

The Grumpy Ump

Under: 26 Over: 21 Push: 4

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Astros project to 77-85. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.

Luck Rankings

Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.

The Astros are 5-10 in one-run games.

Stat(s) of the Day

Thank you for reading.