Updated Projections - Game 52 of 162

No O in Oakland

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 32.1%

Preseason Projections: 67.9

The Astros are 23-29, in 3rd place in the American League West, 3.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners.

Fangraphs projects an 83-79 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 40.4% chance of winning the Division and a 51.0% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Biggest Play

Bottom 1st, runners on first and second, 0 outs, 0-0. Brent Rooker doubled to left (Grounder). Abraham Toro scored. J.J. Bleday scored.

Astros win probability went from 36.3% to 21.4% (-14.9%).

The Home Run Project

No home runs yesterday.

The Grumpy Ump

Under: 27 Over: 21 Push: 4

Umps have generally been better at calling balls than strikes. Yesterday, Jeremie Rehak was the complete opposite, becoming only the second ump to have 100% accuracy on strikes, but was terrible on balls.

Also, the 1.48 run favor to the A’s is the second biggest against the Astros of the season (Nic Lentz, April 13, -1.75).

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Astros project to 77-85. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.

Luck Rankings

Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.

The Astros are 5-10 in one-run games.

Stat(s) of the Day

Down on the Farm

Today we take a look at a couple of 2023 prospects that we detailed in the preseason, Brice Matthews and Alonzo Tredwell.

Matthews is currently on a rehab assignment with the FCL Astros, after experiencing “low back discomfort”.

His last game with Asheville was April 26, but he did play for the FCL Astros on May 25.

Tredwell continues to struggle with control, with 17 walks in 27.1 innings for Fayetteville.

In his most recent outing on May 23rd, he walked 5 and gave up 3 hits, including a home run, in 1.2 innings in taking the loss against the Salem Red Sox.

Thank you for reading.