Updated Projections - Game 55 of 162
Breggy Bomb not nearly enough
NO UPDATES ON THURSDAY MAY 30
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 34.0%
Preseason Projections: 66.0
The Astros are 24-31, in 3rd place in the American League West, 5.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 83-79 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 29.4% chance of winning the Division and a 41.3% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Biggest Play
Bottom 8, runners on first and third, one out, 2-1 Astros. Josh Rojas doubled to right (Grounder). Jonatan Clase scored. Ryan Bliss advanced to 3B.
Astros win probability went from 51.9% to 22.4% (-29.5%).
Listen to Parker and Marty discuss the Astros first 50 games
The Home Run Project
Alex Bregman: 94.6 MPH exit velo, 34-degree launch angle, 362 feet, 1.53 LI.
The Grumpy Ump
Under: 30 Over: 21 Push: 4
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Astros project to 76-86. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.
Luck Rankings
Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.
Astros near “unluckiest” team in MLB.
The Astros are 5-11 in one-run games.
Stat(s) of the Day
Down on the Farm
Yesterday we noted that Cam Fisher was 0 for 50 during May at A+ Asheville.
Thank me later, but Fisher went out and homered in an 11-6 Asheville loss.
Fisher also walked and singled in the game.
Thank you for reading.