Updated Projections - Game 6 of 162
It's getting late early
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 3.7%
Preseason Projections: 96.3%
Well pitched game by Framber, but poor baserunning by Astros.
Season Projections
Nothing notable offensively, except Diaz had two hits from the DH position, which makes Altuve getting picked off third even more painful.
Framber continues to have some bad luck in the W/No decision department (long term, not just this season).
Stress Index
Bear with me on this as it’s a work in progress.
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Another day of rest for the bulk of the bullpen and with Coleman being recalled, Blanco with a complete game and the day off tomorrow, they should be in good shape.
I’ve separated these because they are intended to show different things and it was becoming confusing, even to me.
There will likely be additional changes ahead.
Framber has been over the team average in both starts. Will be interesting to see if that’s a trend or anomaly.
Should be a well-rested pen except for Hader.
About 2 weeks ago, Parker Coleman took a look at Astros no-hitter history.
The Game Turned When
Captain Obvious here. Davis Schneider homered (Fly). Daulton Varsho scored, moving the Blue Jays win probability from 7.9% to 80.8% (72.8%), the biggest shift of the young season.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Coming in the next few days as data becomes more reliable.
More soon.
The Home Run Project
Altuve’s home run Tuesday had a leverage index of 1.07 and was the first of the season for the Astros over 1 (average).
The Grumpy Ump
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
New to the tracking umpire game, but what stands out is the Called Strike Accuracy, or rather inaccuracy.
Four times in the first six games the percentage has been below 90%, several times well below.
The under is trending on Astros games.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Stat(s) of the Day
Tuesday’s home run leading off the 4th inning was Jose Altuve’s 77th homer leading off an inning in his career.
Included in that number are 35 home runs Altuve has hit leading off a game.
Altuve slashes .324/.379/.554 when leading off a game and .311/.367/.498 when leading off an inning.
The Astros are 27th in the FanGraphs BsR (baserunning) metric.
Thanks for reading!