Updated Projections - Game 65 of 162
First two
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 40.1%
Preseason Projections: 59.9%
The Astros are 30-35, in 3rd place in the American League West, 5.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 83-79 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 30.7% chance of winning the Division and a 46.9% chance of making the playoffs.
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Season Projections
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Biggest Play
Top 5, runner on first, one out, 2-0 Astros. Yordan Alvarez homered (Fly). Alex Bregman scored.
Astros win probability went from 75.0% to 88.6% (+13.6%).
The Home Run Project
Yordan Alvarez: 98.1 MPH exit velo, 33-degree launch angle, 385 feet, 0.94 LI.
The Grumpy Ump
Under: 37 Over: 23 Push: 4
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings | Expected Wins | Luck
Luck Rankings
Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.
Astros are currently “unluckiest” team in MLB.
The Astros are 5-13 in one-run games.
This is the percentage of a team’s winning percentage that can be attributed to “luck”, either positive (green) or negative (red).
Example: At one point the Astros win % was .439 and my numbers say they “should” have been at .493, a difference of .054.
.054/.439 = 12.3% (rounded), which is the Astros luck rating, which is negative in this case.
In general, you expect the teams at bottom to regress positively (towards 0.00) and teams at top to regress negatively (to 0.00).
Stat(s) of the Day
Quality Starts
Across the league teams win close to 70% of games where their team’s starter throws a quality start.
It is closer to 80% if your pitcher has a quality start and the other team’s pitcher does not throw a quality start.
Simply put, it’s indicative of “keeping your team in the game”.
Saves and Such
Everyone knows saves and blown saves. Shutdowns and Meltdowns are a Fangraphs stat that I find very useful.
Justin Verlander
Verlander has 5 quality starts in 9 starts on the season.
JV has an ERA of 3.63 with an xERA of 3.70, a FIP of 5.14 and an xFIP of 4.72.
Those numbers and a BABIP of .246 suggest a bit of luck on JV’s side.
Verlander’s BB% of 7.9% is in the 51st percentile, while his K% of 22.2% is in the 48th percentile.
Verlander’s 4-seam fastball has been 0.7 MPH slower than last season and while the batting average against the pitch in 2024 is a point lower than 2023 (.234 vs. .235) the Slug is up 50 points (.467 vs. .417) and the Run Value has plummeted to -1 after being 12 last season.
Pitches per Batter Faced - Bullpen
MLB Power Rankings
On a scale where 100.00 = 81 wins. In other words, a power number of 110.00 means you would be expected to win 110% of the “average team” (81 wins) which equals 89 games.
These rankings consider runs scored, runs given up AND wins and losses.
50.00 = 40.50 wins
75.00 = 60.75 wins
100.00 = 81.00 wins
125.00 = 101.25 wins
Thank you for reading.