Updated Projections - Game 8 of 162
Over before it started
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 4.9%
Preseason Projections: 95.1%
Ugly in Arlington.
Season Projections
A putrid offensive performance.
Miguel Diaz makes an appearance and Dylan Coleman exits, at least for now.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Lower stress on Brown due to the score in the second inning.
Ditto for the pen, with Martinez and Diaz recording 0 stress.
The Game Turned When
Bottom of the second, two on, two out Adolis Garcia homered (Fly). Corey Seager scored. Wyatt Langford scored, moving Rangers win probability from 74.3% to 90.4%.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Coming in the next few days as data becomes more reliable, but still getting crazy numbers.
More soon.
The Home Run Project
Jake Meyers’ home run in a 10-0 game ended the shutout, but recorded a leverage index of 0.00.
The Grumpy Ump
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
By the numbers last night was the best umped game of the season.
The under is now 5-2-1 in Astros games.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Stat(s) of the Day
Hunter Brown in 11 starts (also had 2 relief appearances) since last August 4:
3-7 | 48.1 IP | 60 hits | 45 R | 42 ER | 22 BB |
59 K | 2.61 HR/9| 7.82 ERA| 6.06 FIP | 4.19 xFIP
Preseason Fangraphs had the Astros at a 60.8% chance to win the AL West. That now sits at 50.2% 8 games into the season.
Thanks for reading!