Updated Projections - Game 89 of 162

Consistently inconsistent

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 54.9%

Preseason Projections: 45.1%

Season Projections

• Tucker takes over the projected lead in hits.

I decided against including Madris.

Astros 162

I’m planning on catching up on this over the All-Star Break, but surgery awaits, which means that’s a plan and not a commitment.

Bullpen Usage

Days off heading into the final two games before All-Star Game:

Abreu 2 Martinez 0 Maton 0 Montero 1 Neris 0 Pressly 2 Stanek 0

Today’s Pitching Matchup

NOTE: I’ve sorted these by wOBA against to make it easier to determine who to watch for (or bet on, if you are so inclined).

No experience for Bryan Woo against the Astros.

K Prop

The number for Framber is 6.5. My number comes in at 6.45, which means no bet for me, but consider the over as the Mariners strike out a lot.

Odds

Astros are -126 on ML and +168 -1.5. I was wrong yesterday, but like the Astros here, coming off two games in which they scored 1 run in each with Framber on the mound in a crucial game.

Projected Standings & Luck Rankings

Several spots changed in the playoff race overnight.

Current Playoff Projections:

AL Division Winners: Rangers, Rays, Twins

AL Wild Cards: Orioles, Blue Jays, Astros

NL Division Winners: Braves, Reds, Dodgers

NL Wild Cards: Diamondbacks, Phillies, Giants/Marlins

Luck Rankings

A reminder that a positive number means the team is lucky, 0 means neutral and negative means unlucky.

Most of this revolves around one-run and extra-inning games, with a dash of run differential and actual wins-losses tossed in.

You see the Marlins number, while still high, is lower than yesterday as they lost a one-run game.

May not mean anything notes of the day

• Hunter Brown's last 7 starts:

  36.1 IP 41 H 23 R 23 ER 45 K 15 BB 5.70 ERA 3.84 FIP 2.89 xFIP

• A look at + number for pitching -

  

  Thanks for reading!